It feels like it was months away just yesterday, but the UFC 104 main event is suddenly just a month away. A title fight will be refreshing after a couple of months of deep cards that offered lots of interesting fights but no A-list ones. The enigmatic but gifted Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-3) challenges the undefeated Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Does Shogun stand a chance?
It’s an interesting bout. On one hand, it was weird to see Shogun get a title shot so quickly. He’s won two straight bouts but the wins came against two washed up legends, Mark Coleman and Chuck Liddell. Shogun has received criticism for being out of shape and never realizing his vast potential in the UFC.
However, a closer look shows that Shogun could be Machida’s toughest opponent yet. Rua has won six of seven fights; his striking is a work of art, a deadly combination of technical brilliance and power. Of his 18 wins, 15 are knockouts, and he’s not just dropping no names. Along with Liddell and Coleman, he’s knocked out Rampage Jackson, Alistair Overeem (twice), and Ricardo Arona. He’s also never been knocked out. The only real knock on Shogun is cardio and he showed up for his last fight in much better shape, so he could be formidable.
Can he solve the riddle of Lyoto Machida, who is statistically the best defensive fighter in MMA history? No one can hit this guy, largely because of his unorthodox Karate stance that keeps hi s chin away from opponents. Can Shogun get to Machida? It helps to look at Machida’s victims first – Tito Ortiz, BJ Penn, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans and Rich Franklin are the most notable. Quite a list already. Silva is by far the most similar to Shogun and Machida handled him. Shogun is probably an even better striker than Silva, but I’m still not convinced he’ll get to Machida.
Machida is a counterpuncher, great at waiting for mistakes. Shogun is very aggressive, looking to finish opponents quickly. If he leaves himself open, he could get dropped – Machida showed in his last two fights that he does in fact have knockout power.
I can’t wait for this fight – the talent level in the Octagon will be uber high – but I think Machida will retain his title.
