By Eric Baker
Overview
While many of us are still recovering from last weekend's action, another big card looms on the horizon, and Octagon Betting has your MMA picks.
On Saturday, Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem will defend his title for the first time in more than 2 years against unlikely challenger Brett Rogers. While many fans and observers have criticized Strikeforce for offering a title shot to a man who just lost to world number one ranked heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko, insiders and those who follow Strikeforce closely know that frankly, there just wasn't anyone else.
Lack of depth across their divisions is something that Strikeforce continues to draw criticism for. Indeed, after their shocking signing of Emelianenko, pundits wondered aloud, "just who is he going to fight?"
The promotion's heavyweight champion, Alistair Overeem was immediately an intriguing possibility, however, Overeem's activity in Japan - both in K-1 and under the DREAM mixed martial arts banner, has kept the big man busy overseas. The situation, combined with Overeem's significant growth in the past 2 years has caused numerous critics to accuse Overeem of steroid and other PED use. Alistair and his camp at Golden Glory have vehemently denied these accusations - citing the fact that Overeem has never tested positive for PEDs in any of his previous appearances in the United States, and his absence from competition in Strikeforce was purely due to contractual obligations to K1 and MMA parent company FEG or Fighting and Entertainment Group.
Regardless of the reasons for Overeem's absence from competition stateside, The Flying Dutchman returns to defend his title against Brett Rogers at Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery. The event takes place Saturday night, May 15, from the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri, and will be broadcast on premium cable network Showtime.
Overeem vs. Rogers - The Breakdown
While Overeem has looked positively monsterrific in recent outings, long-time fans of the sport will remember the days when the Dutch striker was considered flaky, at best. Notorious for problems with cardio, Overeem also had a habit of positively wilting after encountering any kind of resistance. The most glaring - and recent - example of this was probably when Overeem faced former PRIDE compatriot, Sergei Kharitonov. When the two met in September of 2007 under the now-defunct K-1 HERO's banner, Kharitonov straight lamped the Demolition Man. All it took was a couple of measured shots landed by Kharitonov to cause Overeem to wilt and retreat from the fight. It looked, frankly, ridiculous.
Just two months later, Overeem fought Paul Buentello for the Strikeforce heavyweight strap, and - certainly to the promotion's surprise, stopped the heavy-handed Buentello on second round knee strikes to the body. That would mark the last time that Overeem competed on U.S. soil.
This fight is interesting because both fighters thrive in the clinch, but for different reasons. Overeem will look to get Rogers in the Thai Plum, and deliver one of his laser-guided knees to the jaw line of his foe. Rogers, for his part, will look to lock up with the Dutchman, avoid damage, and rain blows in the form of overhands and uppercuts. While Overeem has looked unstoppable as of late, Rogers' power combined with the questionable durability of Overeem makes for an interesting angle.
One marked advantage the Demolition Man will certainly have going into the fight will be his ground game. Overeem has an absolutely crushing guillotine, and has looked dominating when fighting opponents out-matched on the ground.
Ultimately I don't think Rogers will have the durability to withstand a barrage of strikes from Overeem. The Demolition Man will prove too big, powerful, and technical for the brawler from Minnesota - look for Alistair to stop Rogers on first round strikes, and setup the only match we want to see in the Strikeforce heavyweight division. Expect Emelianenko vs. Overeem to go down later on this year on CBS.
The Undercard
No. 8 ranked heavyweight Andrei Arlovski returns to face off with Antonio Silva, who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Fabricio Werdum in November of last year. Arlovski is a better fighter than Silva - this is not up for debate. Moreover, Arlovski is acutely aware of his lack of durability at this point, and the work he has put in to his striking will pay off in this bout. Look for Arlovski to work his jab and land on Silva at will. Arlovski has experience taking on big men - see Ben Rothwell - and I don't see Silva's impressive frame causing the Belarusian too much discomfort. Look for Arlovski to use punches and leg kicks to take a unanimous decision over Pezao.
In other action, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza takes on Joey Villasenor in an excellent test for both men. Villasenor, a veteran of PRIDE and Elite XC, has a significant experience advantage over Jacare, but Jacare's grappling acumen is in and of itself simply too much to ignore. Moreover, Jacare displayed serious improvement in his striking in his last fight against Matt Lindland. Jacare outstruck the more experienced Lindland on the feet, took the former Olympic wrestler down, and submitted him in short order.
For his part, however, Villasenor has shown his ability to hang with solid grapplers. That said, an mma fighter with ground skills akin to Jacare's is virtually unheard of - only Roger Gracie, Damien Maia and Marcelo Garcia come to mind.
The X-factor here is Jacare's chin. Being the victim of a KO loss to Gegard Mousasi is no shame for any fighter, but perhaps the same cannot be said about Macaco. If Smokin' Joe can land on Jacare, he has shown on more than one occasion he has the power to put him to sleep.
Unfortunately for Villasenor, I expect Jacare to get inside and take the fight where he's most comfortable. After that, it's only a matter of time before the crocodile sinks his teeth into his prey.
The Rest
Look for Antwain Britt to get busted up by Anderson Silva's best bud Rafael Cavalcante. 'Feijao' was highly touted before a shocking knockout loss to Mike Kyle of all people. Yes, that Mike Kyle. Now his future seems uncertain, but he matches up well with Britt. While Britt has knockout power, people have been too quick to dismiss Cavalcante. Feijao takes this win via submission.
Did you know Vitor Ribeiro was under contract with Strikeforce? Well, he is. And has been, for about nine months now. Well, at least he's finally fighting now, and against an excellent opponent in Lyle Beerbohm. This fight is so great, I'm shocked it's on a Strikeforce undercard, typically reserved for D and E level local talent. While Beerbohm clearly has the fancier of the pants, those interested in MMA betting picks should look for Ribeiro to positionally dominate and take a unanimous decision.
