This page will cover MMA betting. If you’re anything but a complete newbie to sports betting, you already know that placing bets with no edge is not the way to make money on your wagers. Nobody who walks up to the bookie and places a bet just for the heck of it will ever make money in the long run. You need to know a couple of tricks on top of all that, and exercise proper bankroll management.
Capitalize on the shifting lines
All the “tricks” involved in successful MMA betting capitalize on the shifting of the lines by the bookie: that’s where your most important edge is. Look out for situations when the betting public forces the bookmaker into shifts he wouldn’t normally undertake. Such a situation might occur when a favorite fights a capable underdog on the road. Under these circumstances, statistics show that the crowd loves the fav, even though those same statistics also show the underdog doing pretty well under these circumstances.
The sudden influx of money on the fav will force the bookmaker to do one of two things. He’ll either go up against the squares himself, covering their bets, or he’ll move the line around, leaving uncovered value. Since the first option is riskier for the bookie, he’ll probably go with the second one which gives you a nice EV+ on your bet. Remember, whenever you see or hear about a large flock of squares posting their money on one side of a match-up, be on the lookout for value on the other side.
Fitness of the fighters
Over a year of competition MMA fighters can have peaks form. There are moments that fighters are on fire, their fitness is excellent and no one can beat them. However, mental conditioning is just as an important consideration. You must remember that MMA fighters are human beings, and equally as anyone, can lose confidence or motivation that may lower their performance in the octagon. A great example would be Ronda Rousey, who was used to finishing off opponents in a matter of seconds, but after getting KO’d by Holly Holm in 2015 looked a shadow of herself against Nunes.
Styles make fights
Each fighter in the UFC and other fighting promotions has their own characteristics, and while in some their best weapon is their boxing, others are better at wrestling or on the ground. It is important to know the strengths and weaknesses of each fighter before betting on any MMA bout, it is important to know that styles make fights. For example, I believe Frankie Edgar would be an extremely hard fight for Conor McGregor, and yet Aldo shut him down.
Several other factors
Apart from the already mentioned elements to be analyzed, there are also other important elements to consider before betting on MMA. This could include aspects such as altitude, because there are fighters who suffer with the high altitude, and this may affect the performance of a fighter (Cain Velasquez vs Fabricio Werdum at UFC 196). You should also analyze the location where the fight will take place, for example, when a MMA fight is hosted in the hometown of one fighter, usually this fighter will have more motivation.